15.2M views · Aug 28, 2020 · 12:04 · 9 HN recommenders · 20 mentions · discussed 2020–2024
Veritasium examines the role of luck in success, with simulations and examples showing how small advantages and chance can compound. It argues that top outcomes are disproportionately luck-driven while still crediting effort.
Why Hacker News points people here: Linked in threads about meritocracy, careers and startups as a reminder that luck shapes who ends up on top.
“if you attribute just 5% of outcomes to luck, then the people who have the best outcomes are among the luckiest people”HN comment, 2022
“I would really recommend watching "Is Success Luck or Hard Work?" By Veritasium”
Veritasium asks whether success is luck or hard work.
Semi tangent: I would really recommend watching "Is Success Luck or Hard Work?" By Veritasium this video
“But this is the one I think people on HN need to watch most”
The Veritasium video HN readers most need to watch.
Absolutely. His "gravity is not a force" video led me through a whole range of emotions from "this is ridiculous" to "actually..." to "holy crap, I've been wrong about this my entire life". In terms of sheer brain-breaking... this is my favourite: link But this is the one I think people on HN need to watch most this video
“I love Veritasium.”
Listed among favorite Veritasium videos, educational with spiritual subtext.
I love Veritasium. Derek has done a number of videos that are awesome like this. The videos are great and educational, but he also manages to subtly weave in an almost spiritual subtext to them as well. For example, in this one, you learn about imaginary numbers in some cool ways, history, how awesome e^ix is, etc, but also this yen-yang balance between embracing not only what is real but taking a chance on what is imaginary. Some of my other favorites: - link - link - link - this video - link I think he’s going to lose the $10,000 bet on the car though.
“this is an interesting view”
Interesting view on luck, success and perception.
this is an interesting view: this video how luck plays a role to your success but also how you perceive your success which will change your behavior
“There is also a very good Veritasium Video about that”
Veritasium on success, luck and skill.
Ah, success, luck and skill. A really interesting topic. There is also a very good Veritasium Video about that: this video
“Vertasium did a fairly convincing bit on the zip code thing”
Fairly convincing segment on zip code and opportunity.
Stats measure our shared experience. Is there something better for this? The human spirit isn't unconquerable. Believing it is has the side effect that you write off others because, "try harder." Vertasium did a fairly convincing bit on the zip code thing, which is -- I think -- why it's top of mind: this video I encourage you to dig into economic data and not use your experience as a frame of reference for the economic reality of others.
“personally I subscribe to this view on the interaction of luck and success”
Commenter's preferred view on interaction of luck and success.
Discussions on the role of luck in success pop up here on HN from time to time, and one pattern that stands out to me is that, for a good chunk of people, it seems really important to their sense of identity that luck is at best a minor factor in their success. Your post is one of the more direct renderings of that point of view: you don't really argue that the parent post is wrong, merely that it's not a healthy way to frame it. Which makes me curious: why do you believe that it is bad for someone to believe that their success is largely caused by luck? As an aside, personally I subscribe to this view on the interaction of luck and success: this video
“You are so correct (at proper timestamp)”
Supports that careers pivot on lucky moments.
> Out of pretty much all the people I know, I can't think of any successful career not pivoting on one such fateful moment of "luck". One lucky question/answer, one fortunate encounter, one near miss. You are so correct (at proper timestamp): this video
“I like this video”
Liked video on luck accumulating and concentrating.
> number 1 reason [...] a world-class personal track record. > That’s not to take anything away from Matt. Why would that take anything away from Matt? That's tremendous. Anyway I'd disagree. The number 1 factor is luck. I like this video this video but there are plenty like it. Luck accumulates/aggregates/concentrates. I don't know if they cover it that way in that video.
“<- Veritasium on luck vs hard work”
Veritasium on luck versus hard work.
> I'm not trying to shame anyone. Yes, you are. “Most mental disorders are not that serious” is passive-aggressively stating that those suffering from something you consider to “not be serious” just aren’t working hard enough ; that they’re lazy, not disabled. The truth is, you can work as hard as you want, but if you’re not lucky as well, that work won’t propel you forward. this video <- Veritasium on luck vs hard work
“if you took 1.000 random people and ranked them by their overall success, the top ones would almost always be extremely lucky”
Top-ranked of random people are mostly extremely lucky.
Hi guys! I was talking with a friend the other day [1] and he shared this idea, I think it comes from a Veritasium video [2], that if you took 1.000 random people and ranked them by their overall success, the top ones would almost always be extremely lucky (i.e.: you get to the top by being lucky, not by hard work alone) Although the math behind it is extremely simple (just a weighted sum), as well as the code [3], I think the idea that hard work alone doesn't guarantee success is a powerful one. Plus, I think the app is fun to play with. Hope this thought experiment helps reflect about the whole idea of randomness in life, and maybe help spark a few interesting conversations with friends! It'd be great to hear your feedback. [1] link [2] this video [3] link
“Derek Muller has a couple of videos talking about the success of his Veritasium YouTube channel”
Derek Muller on luck and success of his channel.
> The way most entertainers get known is just through sheer luck or connections. Derek Muller has a couple of videos talking about the success of his Veritasium YouTube channel (and work, luck, and success generally): link this video
Said more succinctly, benevolent/inconsequential "lying" for society's or your own improvement can be a very useful modus-operandi. [0] this video [1] link
“Veritasium – Is Success Luck or Hard Work?”
Veritasium on whether success is luck or hard work.
1% of the human population has what, north of 80% of the world's money? If that's not some form of tyranny worthy of criticism, then I don't know what is. Most good fortune in the world comes down to luck and help of literally everyone else. Not wanting to share that wealth comes down to pure greed, ego, and ignorance. Veritasium – Is Success Luck or Hard Work? this video
“Luck (and nepotism) play far too great a role in success for meritocracy to exist.”
Supports claim that luck plays a great role in success.
Luck (and nepotism) play far too great a role in success for meritocracy to exist. this video Then of course there's the whole "the guy who first coined term considered it a joke." Too many people missed the satire and took it way too seriously. link
“if you attribute just 5% of outcomes to luck, then the people who have the best outcomes are among the luckiest people”
Shows small luck share makes top outcomes the luckiest.
I saw a video explaining where if you attribute just 5% of outcomes to luck, then the people who have the best outcomes are among the luckiest people. It's hard to define just how much luck would matter in any given situation, but if you consider every aspect of our lives as part of luck, which I think is what people mean when they debate luck vs hard work, then I think it's a lot higher than 5% actually. That is, things like place/time of birth, parents, family, socioeconomic status at birth, schools, friends, teachers, health, timing of things, chance encounters - these things are all mostly outside of your control. Someone on hacker news might be thinking how they worked hard for years to learn software engineering, spent time networking, practiced interview questions, applied to several places, performed well in the interviews, and landed a lucrative job. And that's all part of hard work and it's often a necessary part of success. It doesn't feel like you lucked into anything. But the lucky part was mostly all the stuff I mentioned before - things that happened at birth, or things that happened because of others' actions. If you're born an affluent white American, for example, your luck meter is highly filled from the start. Then maybe at some point you had a teacher that helped you in a meaningful way, or you met a friend that influenced your decision making. And let's not forget there are people who are just as qualified, who study hard, practice, do all the same things
It's a trend that's well supported afaik [1]. Whether or not that trend manifests inside you as a defeatist attitude is a personal choice. But at the same time, whatever attitude you have isn't going to magically get rid of whatever disadvantages you were born into, so simply dismissing it a defeatist attitude is counterproductive. The danger is ignoring the tendency of egocentric bias in these articles[2]. Successful people assume that their values and ethics are what led them to success, when that may not be true. Though that then bears the question: who do we listen to for advice on success? Rich people? Scientific studies [3]? A thread I read on a previous hackernews post (coincidentally about Paul Graham, another founder of ycombinator) perhaps puts these ideas in better words than I [4] [1]: link [2]: this video [3]: link [4]: link
“We all need a bit of luck too”
Agreed! Been on a one-man team for many years, and have felt exactly the same. As others stated you are definitely not a loser. I know it because I'm not. :P - Almost every one of us is working on boring CRUD web apps, and that's fine - Work is not the only part of life that is supposed to make you happy (on the contrary) - Try to spend all of your free time off screen. Exercise, meditate, read some books (not coding ones ..) - XP >> LeetCode. A college graduate will definitely beat me at LeetCode, but I have been integrating online payment/banking systems in production web apps which have handled millions of $$ payments. Learn to promote those skills when job hunting, and don't worry about DS and Algos so much. - We all need a bit of luck too : this video
“Ultimately, luck is playing a massive role here”
I am willing to provide a short communication some times providing information but the reality is usually a lot less interesting than people think. Reality: I want to hire 1 person, we get say 5 past all the stuff before me, we interview all 5, and then we choose the one that we think fits the best culturally, personality wise, skill wise, etc. So our reply is usually "hey you were great, we wouldn't interview you if you weren't, we just found someone we liked a little bit more". Which isn't very satisfying but you have to think about it from my perspective too. How do you choose between 5 great candidates? Ultimately, luck is playing a massive role here this video
The myth is not in second chances or our ability to adapt, this is sometimes extremely hard but doable - ex: 1st time immigrants. The myth is in our ability to make "choices" which shifts the narrative to "hard work" rather than luck, perpetuated by the elite or those "who have made it". [1] link [2] this video
