388K views · May 16, 2019 · 13:44 · 3 HN recommenders · 4 mentions · discussed 2019–2026
Robert Miles examines whether the case for AI safety is a Pascal's mugging, a tiny probability of an enormous payoff. He argues it is not, because AI risk does not depend on vanishingly small probabilities.
Why Hacker News points people here: HN points to it as a reasoned rebuttal to the claim that AI risk is just Pascal's wager.
“the main point of the video is that kind of situation happens when the probability involved is vanishingly small”HN comment, 2026
“See this video on a reasonable argument about this”
Argues AI safety is not a Pascal's mugging.
Pascal's wager is actually logically flawed. If there are two separate AGI invented, and you could only have chosen to invest in one, then where's the infinite capture of value? See this video on a reasonable argument about this: this video
“Maybe we can look to them for insight in to these questions?”
Safety researchers have long debated whether AI risk is a Pascal's mugging.
All of this discussion really makes me think of Robert Miles "Is ai safety a Pascal's mugging?" from 4 years(!) ago[0]. All of this discussion has been had by Ai safety researchers for years in my layman understanding... Maybe we can look to them for insight in to these questions? [0] this video
“You can’t just call anything that has very bad negative consequences Pascal’s wager”
Explains why AI risk differs from Pascal's wager.
The difference to Pascal’s wager is that with that the probability is vanishingly small, but given current progress the probability of AI causing an existential threat is actually quite high. You can’t just call anything that has very bad negative consequences Pascal’s wager Video about this: “Is AI Safety a Pascal’s Mugging?” this video
“the main point of the video is that kind of situation happens when the probability involved is vanishingly small”
Pascal's mugging needs vanishingly small probabilities, unlike real safety concerns.
Here’s a video called “Is AI safety a Pascal’s Mugging?”: this video From what I remember the main point of the video is that kind of situation happens when the probability involved is vanishingly small, and all the events you listed don’t have a vanishingly small probability, so they are not Pascal’s wager situations, just a normal rational safety concerns with particularly high consequences
